Quebec’s political scene has suddenly become impossible to ignore for anyone running a business in the province. On one side, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) is stuck in a very public internal crisis, with allegations, lawsuits and disciplinary measures making headlines. On the other, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading several polls ahead of the 2026 provincial election and openly repeating its promise to hold a new referendum on independence by 2030 if it forms a government.
For years, many entrepreneurs quietly assumed that sovereignty debates were background noise and that the real game was tax policy, labour rules and day-to-day regulation. The current situation forces a different question: what happens when political instability and referendum talk collide with investment decisions, hiring plans and pricing strategies in Quebec?
In this article, we are not taking sides. The goal is simple: to outline what this new political context could mean in concrete terms for Quebec businesses and investors, and which risks and opportunities leaders should be watching.
A Liberal brand in damage control
The PLQ has historically been perceived as a pro-business, federalist option. For many investors outside Quebec, the Liberals were the “default” party associated with economic stability, close ties with the business community and a clear position inside Canada’s federation.
In late 2025, that brand is under pressure. The party is dealing with internal turmoil linked to its recent leadership race, including the dismissal of a chief of staff, legal action and the publication of text messages that raised questions about how support was organized. An external investigation has been announced, the Director General of Elections is involved, and the caucus itself has been shaken by disciplinary decisions.
For entrepreneurs, the issue is not only who is right or wrong in these internal disputes. The key question is whether the party can rebuild credibility quickly enough to play its traditional role: reassuring markets, attracting centrist voters and acting as a stable alternative for people who are nervous about sovereignty debates. If the answer is “not soon”, then the political map for business planning in Quebec looks very different.
A PQ lead with a clear referendum mandate
On the other side, the Parti Québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is enjoying something rare in recent Quebec history: a sustained lead in voting-intention polls. In several surveys conducted in 2025, the PQ sits clearly ahead of other parties, sometimes by more than ten points among decided voters.
At the same time, the PQ leadership is not trying to hide its intentions. The message has been repeated: if the party wins a majority, it wants to hold a third referendum on Quebec independence by 2030. What makes this more complex is that the same polling landscape also shows many Quebecers do not want another referendum right now and that support for sovereignty itself remains below the 50 percent mark.
For business owners, this combination is unusual. A party can be ahead in the polls while pushing a project that a majority of voters currently do not want to see on the immediate agenda. That gap between political momentum and public hesitation is exactly where uncertainty begins to grow for investors, lenders and boards of directors.
Why this matters for entrepreneurs and investors
From a strictly business perspective, what does this mix of Liberal crisis and PQ referendum promise actually change?
First, it affects perceived political risk. National and international investors who need to choose between expanding in Quebec or in another province will now add a line to their internal memos: “Possibility of referendum within the next government’s mandate.” Even if they do not panic, they will ask more questions about long-term rules, currency scenarios, regulatory continuity and the future of interprovincial trade.
Second, it influences timing. Some companies may decide to delay major investments, acquisitions or plant expansions until the political picture is clearer. That delay alone can have a real impact on local suppliers, contractors and job creation, even if the project ends up going ahead later.
Third, it changes negotiation power. In a context where governments know that businesses can redirect capital to Ontario, the Maritimes, Western Canada or even the United States, major employers sometimes find themselves with more leverage to negotiate specific support, tailored programs or clear guarantees. Political parties of all stripes will be tempted to send reassuring signals to the business community, knowing that every public statement is now read through a “referendum or not” lens.
Finally, it can impact talent attraction. Senior managers, specialized workers and international recruits who consider moving to Quebec will factor in quality of life, tax rates and culture, but also political stability. For some, a possible referendum is a fascinating democratic exercise; for others, it is a source of anxiety. Either way, it influences relocation decisions.
What business leaders should watch between now and 2026
For Quebec entrepreneurs, the question is not to become full-time political analysts. It is to identify a short list of signals that will materially affect their operations and strategy.
One key indicator is whether the PLQ can contain its internal crisis and rebuild a clear message before the election campaign. If the party remains on the defensive, it will struggle to present itself as a credible governing alternative on economic issues. That could keep the PQ in a leading position longer, even if its support softens slightly.
A second signal is how the PQ itself adjusts its messaging on the referendum. There is a big difference between a hard, early timetable that dominates the first year of a mandate and a more flexible approach where the government focuses initially on language, public services, cost of living and economic files before re-opening the national question. Entrepreneurs will be listening carefully to see whether the PQ emphasizes stability and predictability in its economic narrative or centres everything on the constitutional debate.
A third element is the reaction of financial markets and rating agencies. If they begin to flag Quebec’s political risk more explicitly in their reports or adjust their outlook, that will feed directly into borrowing costs for the province and, indirectly, the cost of capital in the private sector.
Planning under uncertainty: practical steps for SMEs
For small and medium-sized businesses, this is not the moment to rewrite every business plan based on hypothetical scenarios. It is, however, a good time to tidy up the house.
This means having a clear view of your exposure to Quebec-specific policies, grants and regulations, reviewing your financing terms, and understanding how a temporary dip in consumer confidence could affect your next two or three quarters. It also means considering how easily you could serve other markets if conditions changed, whether through online sales, interprovincial expansion or partnerships.
Larger companies, including those with head offices in Quebec, may want to quietly stress-test different assumptions: what if a new government modifies certain tax credits, changes labour rules or renegotiates programs with Ottawa? What if consumer sentiment becomes more volatile during a referendum campaign? These are not predictions; they are basic risk-management exercises.
The bottom line
Quebec’s current political moment is not just a matter of party logos and campaign slogans. For entrepreneurs, investors and executives, it re-opens a question that many hoped had been settled for a while: how do you build long-term business strategies in a province where the constitutional future is back on the table and traditional parties are being shaken?
Whether readers personally support or oppose a new referendum, the business reality remains the same. Political risk has returned as a factor in Quebec’s economic equation. Ignoring it will not make it disappear. The companies that will be best positioned over the next few years will likely be those that stay informed, avoid panic, and quietly build plans that work under more than one political scenario.